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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: University of Bristol Chiefs v University of Bath 2 (Tue 13 Mar 2018)Match played between Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran (home) and Jake 'Lisbonese' Tomlinson (away).Match won by Jake 'Lisbonese' Tomlinson. Result: 7-9,3-9,3-9. Starting level for Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran: 1,203, level confidence: 86%. Set manually. Starting level for Jake 'Lisbonese' Tomlinson: 2,023, level confidence: 82%. Set manually. Jake 'Lisbonese' Tomlinson to win as he is currently playing 68% better than Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran. Jake 'Lisbonese' Tomlinson won all of the games and 68% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jake 'Lisbonese' Tomlinson played 50% better than Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran in this match. In this case, Jake 'Lisbonese' Tomlinson played at level 1,841 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Jake 'Lisbonese' Tomlinson would normally have been playing at level 1,874 (based on typical behaviour), Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.8%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jake 'Lisbonese' Tomlinson changes to 0% and Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran changes to +1.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jake 'Lisbonese' Tomlinson becomes 0% and for Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran becomes +1.2%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Jake 'Lisbonese' Tomlinson is 0% and for Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran is +0.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jake 'Lisbonese' Tomlinson: 91%, Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jake 'Lisbonese' Tomlinson: 86%, Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran: 88%. A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran: 1,215, level confidence: 88%. Final level for Jake 'Lisbonese' Tomlinson: 2,021, level confidence: 86%. Notes
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