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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2: David Lloyd Battle Oats v University of Bath 3 (Wed 28 Feb 2018)Match played between Ian Quarterman (home) and Miles Jeanneret (away).Match won by Miles Jeanneret. Result: 1-9,9-7,7-9,9-7,6-9:5-9,3-9,9-3,9-5,9-7:9-7,9-1,5-9,2-9,6-9:1-9,7-9,9-3,9-4,6-9:3-9,0-9,4-9. Starting level for Ian Quarterman: 1,958, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Starting level for Miles Jeanneret: 2,641, level confidence: 69%. Miles Jeanneret to win as he is currently playing 35% better than Ian Quarterman. Miles Jeanneret won 60% of the games and 56% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Miles Jeanneret played 11% better than Ian Quarterman in this match. As Miles Jeanneret has played below his allowed range at 2,317, his level reduction is 6.8% before damping. On the assumption that Miles Jeanneret would normally have been playing at level 2,566 (based on typical behaviour), Ian Quarterman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.8%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.9% and 7.5% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Miles Jeanneret changes to -5.9% and Ian Quarterman changes to +7.2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Miles Jeanneret becomes -3.1% and for Ian Quarterman becomes +3.9%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Miles Jeanneret is -2.3% and for Ian Quarterman is +2.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Miles Jeanneret: 83%, Ian Quarterman: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Miles Jeanneret: 75%, Ian Quarterman: 77%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ian Quarterman: 2,015, level confidence: 77%. Final level for Miles Jeanneret: 2,577, level confidence: 75%. Notes
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