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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2: University of Bath 3 v Workout Harbourside (Thu 22 Mar 2018)Match played between Rob Dewar (home) and Ed Grattan (away).Match won by Rob Dewar. Result: 9-2,9-1,9-0. Starting level for Rob Dewar: 1,634, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Starting level for Ed Grattan: 1,116, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Rob Dewar to win as he is currently playing 46% better than Ed Grattan. Rob Dewar won all of the games and 90% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 209% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Dewar played 209% better than Ed Grattan in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rob Dewar actually played at a level of 2,374 and Ed Grattan at a level of 768. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 45% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 36% and 36% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Dewar changes to +36% and Ed Grattan changes to -36%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Dewar becomes +15% and for Ed Grattan becomes -17%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Rob Dewar is +11% and for Ed Grattan is -13%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Rob Dewar is limited to +10% and Ed Grattan is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Dewar: 88%, Ed Grattan: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Dewar: 60%, Ed Grattan: 61%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Rob Dewar: 1,795, level confidence: 60%. Final level for Ed Grattan: 1,059, level confidence: 61%. Notes
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