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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 3: University of Bath 4 v Shepton Mallet B (Wed 21 Mar 2018)Match played between Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth (home) and Simon Ashfield (away).Match won by Simon Ashfield. Result: 9-2,4-9,3-9,0-9. Starting level for Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth: 1,060, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Starting level for Simon Ashfield: 1,581, level confidence: 86%. Set manually. Simon Ashfield to win as he is currently playing 49% better than Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth. Simon Ashfield won 75% of the games and 64% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 35% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Simon Ashfield played 28% better than Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth in this match. As Simon Ashfield has played below his allowed range at 1,389, his level reduction is 2.1% before damping. On the assumption that Simon Ashfield would normally have been playing at level 1,507 (based on typical behaviour), Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.3%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.7% and 4.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Simon Ashfield changes to -1.5% and Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth changes to +4.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Simon Ashfield becomes -1.2% and for Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth becomes +3.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Simon Ashfield is -0.9% and for Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth is +2.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Simon Ashfield: 93%, Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Simon Ashfield: 86%, Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth: 80%. A final adjustment of -0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth: 1,084, level confidence: 80%. Final level for Simon Ashfield: 1,554, level confidence: 86%. Notes
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