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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 3: University of Bath 4 v Bradley Stoke Squash Club A (Wed 14 Mar 2018)Match played between Abdelrahman 'The Pharoah' Hegazy (home) and Paul Redmore (away).Match won by Abdelrahman 'The Pharoah' Hegazy. Result: 9-5,5-9,9-2,9-7. Starting level for Abdelrahman 'The Pharoah' Hegazy: 1,122, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Starting level for Paul Redmore: 804, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Abdelrahman 'The Pharoah' Hegazy to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Paul Redmore. Abdelrahman 'The Pharoah' Hegazy won 75% of the games and 58% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Abdelrahman 'The Pharoah' Hegazy played 23% better than Paul Redmore in this match. As Abdelrahman 'The Pharoah' Hegazy has played below his allowed range at 1,011, his level reduction is 2.5% before damping. On the assumption that Abdelrahman 'The Pharoah' Hegazy would normally have been playing at level 1,083 (based on typical behaviour), Paul Redmore played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.8%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.1% and 4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Abdelrahman 'The Pharoah' Hegazy changes to -2% and Paul Redmore changes to +4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Abdelrahman 'The Pharoah' Hegazy becomes -1.9% and for Paul Redmore becomes +3.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Abdelrahman 'The Pharoah' Hegazy is -1.4% and for Paul Redmore is +2.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Abdelrahman 'The Pharoah' Hegazy: 87%, Paul Redmore: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Abdelrahman 'The Pharoah' Hegazy: 81%, Paul Redmore: 79%. A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Abdelrahman 'The Pharoah' Hegazy: 1,102, level confidence: 81%. Final level for Paul Redmore: 823, level confidence: 79%. Notes
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