|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 4: Redwood Phoenix v Avon West / Centre For Sport - K1 (Wed 14 Mar 2018)Match played between Jake West (home) and David Fielding (away).Match won by David Fielding. Result: 5-9,2-9,2-9:8-10,9-5,9-1,4-9,9-6:9-2,9-7,7-9,9-5:7-9,9-7,9-6,9-4:9-5,9-4,9-1. Starting level for Jake West: 1,718, level confidence: 47%. Starting level for David Fielding: 2,022, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. David Fielding to win as he is currently playing 18% better than Jake West. David Fielding won all of the games and 75% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 76% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Fielding played 76% better than Jake West in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Fielding actually played at a level of 2,473 and Jake West at a level of 1,405. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Fielding changes to +13% and Jake West changes to -20%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Fielding becomes +5.9% and for Jake West becomes -9.1%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for David Fielding is +4.4% and for Jake West is -6.7%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Jake West is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Fielding: 86%, Jake West: 68%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Fielding: 71%, Jake West: 56%. A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jake West: 1,638, level confidence: 56%. Final level for David Fielding: 2,112, level confidence: 71%. Notes
|