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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 5: Redland Eagles v Redland Fireflies (Thu 08 Mar 2018)Match played between Duncan 'Gaffers' Gaffney (home) and David Langbridge (away).Match won by David Langbridge. Result: 9-7,3-9,1-9,1-9. Starting level for Duncan 'Gaffers' Gaffney: 809, level confidence: 63%. Starting level for David Langbridge: 1,283, level confidence: 80%. Set manually. David Langbridge to win as he is currently playing 59% better than Duncan 'Gaffers' Gaffney. David Langbridge won 75% of the games and 71% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 58% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Langbridge played 36% better than Duncan 'Gaffers' Gaffney in this match. As David Langbridge has played below his allowed range at 1,108, his level reduction is 0.8% before damping. On the assumption that David Langbridge would normally have been playing at level 1,206 (based on typical behaviour), Duncan 'Gaffers' Gaffney played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.7%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.6% and 3.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Langbridge changes to -0.5% and Duncan 'Gaffers' Gaffney changes to +3.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Langbridge becomes -0.4% and for Duncan 'Gaffers' Gaffney becomes +3.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for David Langbridge is -0.3% and for Duncan 'Gaffers' Gaffney is +2.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Langbridge: 89%, Duncan 'Gaffers' Gaffney: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Langbridge: 83%, Duncan 'Gaffers' Gaffney: 74%. A final adjustment of -3.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Duncan 'Gaffers' Gaffney: 804, level confidence: 74%. Final level for David Langbridge: 1,241, level confidence: 83%. Notes
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