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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 7: Westbury David Lloyd C v Chew Valley Winter B (Wed 21 Feb 2018)Match played between Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters (home) and Brian Pate (away).Match won by Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters. Result: 9-0,9-4,9-3. Starting level for Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters: 1,083, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Starting level for Brian Pate: 589, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters to win as he is currently playing 84% better than Brian Pate. Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters won all of the games and 79% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 97% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters played 97% better than Brian Pate in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters actually played at a level of 1,121 and Brian Pate at a level of 569. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.5% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.6% and 2.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters changes to +2.6% and Brian Pate changes to -2.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters becomes +2.5% and for Brian Pate becomes -2.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters is +1.9% and for Brian Pate is -1.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters: 86%, Brian Pate: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters: 83%, Brian Pate: 85%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Rob Whitty Not Witty Waters: 1,102, level confidence: 83%. Final level for Brian Pate: 576, level confidence: 85%. Notes
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