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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: University of Bristol Chicken Dinners v Lansdown A (Thu 22 Feb 2018)Match played between Alice 'The Tinwomen' Greswold (home) and Hannah Scott (away).Match won by Hannah Scott. Result: 10-8,4-9,0-9,5-9. Starting level for Alice 'The Tinwomen' Greswold: 359, level confidence: 67%. Starting level for Hannah Scott: 573, level confidence: 65%. Hannah Scott to win as she is currently playing 60% better than Alice 'The Tinwomen' Greswold. Hannah Scott won 75% of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 38% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Hannah Scott played 29% better than Alice 'The Tinwomen' Greswold in this match. As Hannah Scott has played below her allowed range at 480, her level reduction is 3.4% before damping. On the assumption that Hannah Scott would normally have been playing at level 538 (based on typical behaviour), Alice 'The Tinwomen' Greswold played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.6%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.7% and 6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Hannah Scott changes to -2.7% and Alice 'The Tinwomen' Greswold changes to +5.8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Hannah Scott becomes -2.7% and for Alice 'The Tinwomen' Greswold becomes +4.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Ladies Spring 2019 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Hannah Scott is -2% and for Alice 'The Tinwomen' Greswold is +3.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Hannah Scott: 80%, Alice 'The Tinwomen' Greswold: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Hannah Scott: 72%, Alice 'The Tinwomen' Greswold: 74%. A final adjustment of -0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Alice 'The Tinwomen' Greswold: 367, level confidence: 74%. Final level for Hannah Scott: 559, level confidence: 72%. Notes
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