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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: University of Bristol Chicken Dinners v Kingsdown (Thu 25 Jan 2018)Match played between Katherine Jensen (home) and Mandy Lewis (away).Match won by Katherine Jensen. Result: 9-6,9-0,9-0. Starting level for Katherine Jensen: 1,357, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Starting level for Mandy Lewis: 480, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Katherine Jensen to win as she is currently playing 183% better than Mandy Lewis. Katherine Jensen won all of the games and 82% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 118% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Katherine Jensen played 118% better than Mandy Lewis in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Katherine Jensen was taking it easy by anything up to 22%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 765 and 1,357 without affecting her level. In this case, Katherine Jensen played at level 1,049 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Mandy Lewis is considered to have not played better than expected and her level will also not be adjusted. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Katherine Jensen changes to 0% and Mandy Lewis changes to 0%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Katherine Jensen becomes 0% and for Mandy Lewis becomes 0%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Ladies Spring 2019 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Katherine Jensen is 0% and for Mandy Lewis is 0%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Katherine Jensen: 87%, Mandy Lewis: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Katherine Jensen: 76%, Mandy Lewis: 75%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Katherine Jensen: 1,354, level confidence: 76%. Final level for Mandy Lewis: 480, level confidence: 75%. Notes
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