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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Kingsdown v University of Bristol Chicken Dinners (Mon 19 Mar 2018)Match played between Fiona Gleed (home) and Esme Hedley (away).Match won by Esme Hedley. Result: 0-9,0-9,3-9. Starting level for Fiona Gleed: 64, level confidence: 10%. Starting level for Esme Hedley: 423, level confidence: 68%. Esme Hedley to win as she is currently playing 561% better than Fiona Gleed. Esme Hedley won all of the games and 90% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 209% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Esme Hedley played 209% better than Fiona Gleed in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Esme Hedley was taking it easy by anything up to 50%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 90 and 423 without affecting her level. In this case, Esme Hedley played at level 205 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Esme Hedley would normally have been playing at level 212 (based on typical behaviour), Fiona Gleed played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.6%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Esme Hedley changes to 0% and Fiona Gleed changes to +1.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Esme Hedley becomes 0% and for Fiona Gleed becomes +1.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Ladies Spring 2019 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Esme Hedley is 0% and for Fiona Gleed is +1.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Esme Hedley: 82%, Fiona Gleed: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Esme Hedley: 56%, Fiona Gleed: 22%. A final adjustment of -0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Fiona Gleed: 64, level confidence: 22%. Final level for Esme Hedley: 422, level confidence: 56%. Notes
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