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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Lansdown A v Kingsdown (Thu 01 Feb 2018)Match played between Carolyn Chennells (home) and Emma Coughlan (away).Match won by Emma Coughlan. Result: 4-9,1-9,3-9:9-0,9-1,9-5:9-0,9-1,9-0:9-0,9-0,9-0:?-?. Starting level for Carolyn Chennells: 1,222, level confidence: 80%. Set manually. Starting level for Emma Coughlan: 1,646, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Emma Coughlan to win as she is currently playing 35% better than Carolyn Chennells. Emma Coughlan won all of the games and 77% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 86% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Emma Coughlan played 86% better than Carolyn Chennells in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Emma Coughlan actually played at a level of 1,934 and Carolyn Chennells at a level of 1,040. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Emma Coughlan changes to +15% and Carolyn Chennells changes to -14%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Emma Coughlan becomes +7.2% and for Carolyn Chennells becomes -7.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Ladies Spring 2019 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Emma Coughlan is +5.4% and for Carolyn Chennells is -5.8%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Carolyn Chennells is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Emma Coughlan: 88%, Carolyn Chennells: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Emma Coughlan: 74%, Carolyn Chennells: 76%. A final adjustment of -0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Carolyn Chennells: 1,162, level confidence: 76%. Final level for Emma Coughlan: 1,719, level confidence: 74%. Notes
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