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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Kingsdown v Lansdown A (Thu 08 Mar 2018)Match played between Mandy Lewis (home) and Pippa Green (away).Match won by Pippa Green. Result: 1-9,3-9,4-9:6-9,6-9,9-3,9-7,3-9:0-9,1-9,2-9:0-9,2-9,3-9:0-9,3-9,0-9. Starting level for Mandy Lewis: 494, level confidence: 62%. Starting level for Pippa Green: 1,837, level confidence: 64%. Pippa Green to win as she is currently playing 272% better than Mandy Lewis. Pippa Green won all of the games and 77% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 86% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Pippa Green played 86% better than Mandy Lewis in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Pippa Green was taking it easy by anything up to 32%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 777 and 1,837 without affecting her level. In this case, Pippa Green played at level 1,073 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Pippa Green would normally have been playing at level 1,253 (based on typical behaviour), Mandy Lewis played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 17%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 8.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Pippa Green changes to 0% and Mandy Lewis changes to +8.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Pippa Green becomes 0% and for Mandy Lewis becomes +5.7%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Ladies Spring 2019 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Pippa Green is 0% and for Mandy Lewis is +4.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Pippa Green: 80%, Mandy Lewis: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Pippa Green: 57%, Mandy Lewis: 56%. A final adjustment of -0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mandy Lewis: 513, level confidence: 56%. Final level for Pippa Green: 1,828, level confidence: 57%. Notes
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