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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2: University of Bath Ladies A v University of Bath Ladies B (Thu 01 Feb 2018)Match played between Annabel Biggs (home) and Zoe Saillard (away).Match won by Annabel Biggs. Result: 9-4,9-2,9-5. Starting level for Annabel Biggs: 118, level confidence: 44%. Starting level for Zoe Saillard: 63, level confidence: 45%. Annabel Biggs to win as she is currently playing 87% better than Zoe Saillard. Annabel Biggs won all of the games and 71% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 58% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Annabel Biggs played 57% better than Zoe Saillard in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Annabel Biggs was taking it easy by anything up to 10%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 92 and 118 without affecting her level. In this case, Annabel Biggs played at level 102 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Annabel Biggs would normally have been playing at level 106 (based on typical behaviour), Zoe Saillard played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.5%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.5% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Annabel Biggs changes to 0% and Zoe Saillard changes to +2.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Annabel Biggs becomes 0% and for Zoe Saillard becomes +2.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Ladies Spring 2019 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Annabel Biggs is 0% and for Zoe Saillard is +1.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Annabel Biggs: 66%, Zoe Saillard: 67%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Annabel Biggs: 61%, Zoe Saillard: 61%. A final adjustment of +1.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Annabel Biggs: 121, level confidence: 61%. Final level for Zoe Saillard: 64, level confidence: 61%. Notes
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