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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 6: Kingsdown Stallions v University of Bath 5 (Wed 07 Feb 2018)Match played between Owen Sanders (home) and Alex 'Anger Management' Snook (away).Match won by Owen Sanders. Result: 9-2,9-2,9-2:8-10,9-6,9-6,4-9,9-3:9-7,9-3,9-3:9-7,9-6,9-1:9-1,9-0,9-1. Starting level for Owen Sanders: 1,842, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Starting level for Alex 'Anger Management' Snook: 1,229, level confidence: 45%. Owen Sanders to win as he is currently playing 50% better than Alex 'Anger Management' Snook. Owen Sanders won all of the games and 82% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 118% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Owen Sanders played 118% better than Alex 'Anger Management' Snook in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Owen Sanders actually played at a level of 2,222 and Alex 'Anger Management' Snook at a level of 1,019. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Owen Sanders changes to +9.9% and Alex 'Anger Management' Snook changes to -17%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Owen Sanders becomes +5% and for Alex 'Anger Management' Snook becomes -8.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Owen Sanders is +3.8% and for Alex 'Anger Management' Snook is -6.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Owen Sanders: 87%, Alex 'Anger Management' Snook: 67%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Owen Sanders: 72%, Alex 'Anger Management' Snook: 56%. A final adjustment of -1.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Owen Sanders: 1,863, level confidence: 72%. Final level for Alex 'Anger Management' Snook: 1,157, level confidence: 56%. Notes
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