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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 6: Kingswood Originals v University of Bristol Sharks (Wed 17 Jan 2018)Match played between Neale Saunders (home) and Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg (away).Match won by Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg. Result: 2-9,4-9,8-10. Starting level for Neale Saunders: 837, level confidence: 50%. Starting level for Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg: 1,588, level confidence: 52%. Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg to win as he is currently playing 90% better than Neale Saunders. Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg won all of the games and 67% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 44% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg played 48% better than Neale Saunders in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,232 and 1,588 without affecting his level. In this case, Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg played at level 1,324 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg would normally have been playing at level 1,419 (based on typical behaviour), Neale Saunders played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.1%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 5.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg changes to 0% and Neale Saunders changes to +5.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg becomes 0% and for Neale Saunders becomes +4.1%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg is 0% and for Neale Saunders is +3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg: 72%, Neale Saunders: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg: 64%, Neale Saunders: 62%. A final adjustment of -1.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Neale Saunders: 854, level confidence: 62%. Final level for Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg: 1,562, level confidence: 64%. Notes
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