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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 6: University of Bath 5 v Bradley Stoke Squash Club B (Tue 20 Feb 2018)Match played between Alex 'Anger Management' Snook (home) and Daniel Barry (away).Match won by Daniel Barry. Result: 0-9,0-9,3-9:9-1,2-9,9-4,10-9:4-9,9-6,6-9,6-9:10-8,6-9,7-9,9-6,9-10:9-1,8-10,9-1,9-2. Starting level for Alex 'Anger Management' Snook: 1,202, level confidence: 64%. Starting level for Daniel Barry: 1,625, level confidence: 66%. Daniel Barry to win as he is currently playing 35% better than Alex 'Anger Management' Snook. Daniel Barry won all of the games and 90% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 209% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daniel Barry played 209% better than Alex 'Anger Management' Snook in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Daniel Barry actually played at a level of 2,457 and Alex 'Anger Management' Snook at a level of 795. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 51% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 43% and 43% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daniel Barry changes to +41% and Alex 'Anger Management' Snook changes to -43%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daniel Barry becomes +16.8% and for Alex 'Anger Management' Snook becomes -20%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Daniel Barry is +13% and for Alex 'Anger Management' Snook is -14%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Daniel Barry is limited to +10% and Alex 'Anger Management' Snook is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daniel Barry: 81%, Alex 'Anger Management' Snook: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daniel Barry: 54%, Alex 'Anger Management' Snook: 53%. A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Alex 'Anger Management' Snook: 1,151, level confidence: 53%. Final level for Daniel Barry: 1,769, level confidence: 54%. Notes
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