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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 6: University of Bath 5 v Kingswood Originals (Thu 25 Jan 2018)Match played between Abdelrahman 'The Pharoah' Hegazy (home) and Stephen Collett (away).Match won by Abdelrahman 'The Pharoah' Hegazy. Result: 9-2,9-1,9-7. Starting level for Abdelrahman 'The Pharoah' Hegazy: 1,154, level confidence: 25%. Starting level for Stephen Collett: 698, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Abdelrahman 'The Pharoah' Hegazy to win as he is currently playing 65% better than Stephen Collett. Abdelrahman 'The Pharoah' Hegazy won all of the games and 73% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Abdelrahman 'The Pharoah' Hegazy played 67% better than Stephen Collett in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Abdelrahman 'The Pharoah' Hegazy actually played at a level of 1,160 and Stephen Collett at a level of 695. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.5% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.4% and 0.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Abdelrahman 'The Pharoah' Hegazy changes to +0.4% and Stephen Collett changes to 0%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Abdelrahman 'The Pharoah' Hegazy becomes +0.4% and for Stephen Collett becomes 0%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Abdelrahman 'The Pharoah' Hegazy is 0% and for Stephen Collett is 0%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Abdelrahman 'The Pharoah' Hegazy: 50%, Stephen Collett: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Abdelrahman 'The Pharoah' Hegazy: 49%, Stephen Collett: 86%. A final adjustment of -0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Abdelrahman 'The Pharoah' Hegazy: 1,143, level confidence: 49%. Final level for Stephen Collett: 694, level confidence: 86%. Notes
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