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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 6: University of Bristol Sharks v University of Bath 5 (Tue 17 Apr 2018)Match played between Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg (home) and Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth (away).Match won by Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth. Result: 5-9,1-9,6-9. Starting level for Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg: 1,426, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Starting level for Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth: 1,084, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg to win as he is currently playing 32% better than Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth. Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth won all of the games and 69% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 51% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth played 52% better than Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg in this match. An upset! Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth actually played at a level of 1,534 and Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg at a level of 1,007. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 42% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 35% and 35% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth changes to +35% and Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg changes to -34%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth becomes +17.4% and for Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg becomes -15%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth is +13% and for Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg is -10.8%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth is limited to +10% and Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg is limited to -7.2% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth: 84%, Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth: 60%, Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg: 61%. A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg: 1,336, level confidence: 61%. Final level for Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth: 1,195, level confidence: 60%. Notes
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