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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 6: University of Bristol Sharks v University of Bath 5 (Tue 17 Apr 2018)Match played between Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran (home) and Alex 'Anger Management' Snook (away).Match won by Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran. Result: 9-1,9-1,9-3. Starting level for Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran: 1,258, level confidence: 81%. Set manually. Starting level for Alex 'Anger Management' Snook: 1,080, level confidence: 53%. Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran to win as he is currently playing 16% better than Alex 'Anger Management' Snook. Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran won all of the games and 84% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 134% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran played 134% better than Alex 'Anger Management' Snook in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran actually played at a level of 1,783 and Alex 'Anger Management' Snook at a level of 762. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 42% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran changes to +25% and Alex 'Anger Management' Snook changes to -38%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran becomes +12.2% and for Alex 'Anger Management' Snook becomes -19%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran is +9.1% and for Alex 'Anger Management' Snook is -13%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Alex 'Anger Management' Snook is limited to -7.5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran: 90%, Alex 'Anger Management' Snook: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran: 63%, Alex 'Anger Management' Snook: 51%. A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran: 1,378, level confidence: 63%. Final level for Alex 'Anger Management' Snook: 1,011, level confidence: 51%. Notes
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