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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 6: University of Bristol Sharks v University of Bath 5 (Tue 17 Apr 2018)Match played between Edward 'The Baker' Selman (home) and Hector 'Homeless' Leitch (away).Match won by Hector 'Homeless' Leitch. Result: 6-9,9-6,10-8,6-9,0-9. Starting level for Edward 'The Baker' Selman: 542, level confidence: 70%. Set manually. Starting level for Hector 'Homeless' Leitch: 816, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Hector 'Homeless' Leitch to win as he is currently playing 51% better than Edward 'The Baker' Selman. Hector 'Homeless' Leitch won 60% of the games and 57% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Hector 'Homeless' Leitch played 12% better than Edward 'The Baker' Selman in this match. As Hector 'Homeless' Leitch has played below his allowed range at 664, his level reduction is 9.8% before damping. On the assumption that Hector 'Homeless' Leitch would normally have been playing at level 776 (based on typical behaviour), Edward 'The Baker' Selman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 13%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.9% and 10.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Hector 'Homeless' Leitch changes to -7.4% and Edward 'The Baker' Selman changes to +10.7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Hector 'Homeless' Leitch becomes -5.2% and for Edward 'The Baker' Selman becomes +6.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Hector 'Homeless' Leitch is -3.9% and for Edward 'The Baker' Selman is +5.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Hector 'Homeless' Leitch: 87%, Edward 'The Baker' Selman: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Hector 'Homeless' Leitch: 75%, Edward 'The Baker' Selman: 72%. A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Edward 'The Baker' Selman: 572, level confidence: 72%. Final level for Hector 'Homeless' Leitch: 786, level confidence: 75%. Notes
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