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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 6: University of Bath 5 v University of Bristol Sharks (Thu 08 Mar 2018)Match played between Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth (home) and Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg (away).Match won by Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg. Result: 6-9,9-5,7-9,0-9. Starting level for Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth: 1,070, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Starting level for Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg: 1,597, level confidence: 65%. Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg to win as he is currently playing 49% better than Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth. Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg won 75% of the games and 59% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg played 24% better than Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth in this match. As Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg has played below his allowed range at 1,377, his level reduction is 4% before damping. On the assumption that Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg would normally have been playing at level 1,522 (based on typical behaviour), Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.2%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.3% and 5.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg changes to -3.3% and Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth changes to +4.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg becomes -2.6% and for Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth becomes +3.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg is -2% and for Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth is +2.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg: 80%, Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg: 73%, Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth: 80%. A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth: 1,100, level confidence: 80%. Final level for Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg: 1,559, level confidence: 73%. Notes
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