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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 6: University of Bath 5 v University of Bristol Sharks (Thu 08 Mar 2018)Match played between Alex 'Anger Management' Snook (home) and Harry 'No Show' Brown (away).Match won by Alex 'Anger Management' Snook. Result: 9-5,2-9,3-9,9-5,9-6. Starting level for Alex 'Anger Management' Snook: 1,088, level confidence: 53%. Starting level for Harry 'No Show' Brown: 1,243, level confidence: 81%. Set manually. Harry 'No Show' Brown to win as he is currently playing 14% better than Alex 'Anger Management' Snook. Alex 'Anger Management' Snook won 60% of the games and 48% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 4% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alex 'Anger Management' Snook played 7% better than Harry 'No Show' Brown in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alex 'Anger Management' Snook actually played at a level of 1,200 and Harry 'No Show' Brown at a level of 1,127. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.3% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alex 'Anger Management' Snook changes to +9.6% and Harry 'No Show' Brown changes to -6.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alex 'Anger Management' Snook becomes +6% and for Harry 'No Show' Brown becomes -4.2%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Alex 'Anger Management' Snook is +4.5% and for Harry 'No Show' Brown is -3.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alex 'Anger Management' Snook: 72%, Harry 'No Show' Brown: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alex 'Anger Management' Snook: 66%, Harry 'No Show' Brown: 82%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Alex 'Anger Management' Snook: 1,136, level confidence: 66%. Final level for Harry 'No Show' Brown: 1,203, level confidence: 82%. Notes
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