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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 6: Kingsdown Stallions v University of Bristol Sharks (Wed 14 Mar 2018)Match played between Owen Sanders (home) and Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg (away).Match won by Owen Sanders. Result: 9-5,9-7,9-2:0-9,6-9,0-9:4-9,7-9,1-9:9-3,9-2,9-4:4-9,6-9,9-2,1-9. Starting level for Owen Sanders: 1,946, level confidence: 82%. Set manually. Starting level for Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg: 1,559, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Owen Sanders to win as he is currently playing 25% better than Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg. Owen Sanders won all of the games and 66% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Owen Sanders played 46% better than Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Owen Sanders actually played at a level of 2,102 and Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg at a level of 1,443. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.1% and 7.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Owen Sanders changes to +6.3% and Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg changes to -7.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Owen Sanders becomes +3.6% and for Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg becomes -4.3%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Owen Sanders is +2.7% and for Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg is -3.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Owen Sanders: 91%, Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Owen Sanders: 84%, Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg: 79%. A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Owen Sanders: 1,996, level confidence: 84%. Final level for Freddie 'Racquet Skills' Borg: 1,513, level confidence: 79%. Notes
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