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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 8: Lansdown 4 v Colston (Wed 24 Jan 2018)Match played between Charlie Ramsey (home) and Julian Stone (away).Match won by Charlie Ramsey. Result: 9-4,9-4,9-0. Starting level for Charlie Ramsey: 1,200, level confidence: 48%. Starting level for Julian Stone: 495, level confidence: 49%. Charlie Ramsey to win as he is currently playing 142% better than Julian Stone. Charlie Ramsey won all of the games and 77% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 86% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Charlie Ramsey played 86% better than Julian Stone in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Charlie Ramsey was taking it easy by anything up to 18%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 774 and 1,200 without affecting his level. In this case, Charlie Ramsey played at level 953 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Charlie Ramsey would normally have been playing at level 987 (based on typical behaviour), Julian Stone played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.6%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Charlie Ramsey changes to 0% and Julian Stone changes to +2.2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Charlie Ramsey becomes 0% and for Julian Stone becomes +2.2%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Charlie Ramsey is 0% and for Julian Stone is +1.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Charlie Ramsey: 69%, Julian Stone: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Charlie Ramsey: 60%, Julian Stone: 61%. A final adjustment of -0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Charlie Ramsey: 1,194, level confidence: 60%. Final level for Julian Stone: 501, level confidence: 61%. Notes
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