|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesTom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran v Ewen Meaker (Tue 16 Jan 2018)Match won by Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran. Result: 11-6,11-5,11-6.Starting level for Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran: 1,179, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Starting level for Ewen Meaker: 337, level confidence: 10%. Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran to win as he is currently playing 250% better than Ewen Meaker. Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran won all of the games and 66% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran played 94% better than Ewen Meaker in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran was taking it easy by anything up to 30%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 490 and 1,179 without affecting his level. In this case, Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran played at level 737 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran would normally have been playing at level 830 (based on typical behaviour), Ewen Meaker played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 13%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran changes to 0% and Ewen Meaker changes to +6.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran becomes 0% and for Ewen Meaker becomes +4.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'University Bristol Intramural Leagues' so the adjustment for Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran is 0% and for Ewen Meaker is +2.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran: 84%, Ewen Meaker: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran: 63%, Ewen Meaker: 24%. A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Tom 'Sharkskin' Corcoran: 1,167, level confidence: 63%. Final level for Ewen Meaker: 349, level confidence: 24%. Notes
|