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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Bradley Stoke Squash Club Doubles v Westbury David Lloyd Eurotaxis (Wed 19 Aug 2009)Match played between Andy Beard/James Found (home) and Darran Venn/Oli Hill (away).Match won by Darran Venn/Oli Hill. Result: 10-15,6-15,10-15. Starting level for Andy Beard/James Found: 949, level confidence: 19%. Starting level for Darran Venn/Oli Hill: 2,621, level confidence: 10%. Darran Venn/Oli Hill to win as he is currently playing 176% better than Andy Beard/James Found. Darran Venn/Oli Hill won all of the games and 63% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 73% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Darran Venn/Oli Hill played 73% better than Andy Beard/James Found in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Darran Venn/Oli Hill was taking it easy by anything up to 22%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,510 and 2,621 without affecting his level. In this case, Darran Venn/Oli Hill played at level 1,836 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Darran Venn/Oli Hill would normally have been playing at level 2,052 (based on typical behaviour), Andy Beard/James Found played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Darran Venn/Oli Hill changes to 0% and Andy Beard/James Found changes to +3.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Darran Venn/Oli Hill becomes 0% and for Andy Beard/James Found becomes +3.3%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Doubles 2008/2009' so the adjustment for Darran Venn/Oli Hill is 0% and for Andy Beard/James Found is +2.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Darran Venn/Oli Hill: 32%, Andy Beard/James Found: 44%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Darran Venn/Oli Hill: 25%, Andy Beard/James Found: 34%. Final level for Andy Beard/James Found: 973, level confidence: 34%. Final level for Darran Venn/Oli Hill: 2,621, level confidence: 25%. Notes
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