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Login: | Explaining level changesNev Saunders v Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams (Thu 22 Mar 2018)Match won by Nev Saunders. Result: 9-2,9-1,9-0.Starting level for Nev Saunders: 1,772, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Starting level for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 1,108, level confidence: 68%. Nev Saunders to win as he is currently playing 60% better than Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams. Nev Saunders won all of the games and 90% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 209% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nev Saunders played 209% better than Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nev Saunders actually played at a level of 2,463 and Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams at a level of 797. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 39% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 30% and 30% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nev Saunders changes to +28% and Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams changes to -30%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nev Saunders becomes +11.9% and for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams becomes -15%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Green Boxes' so the adjustment for Nev Saunders is +5.9% and for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams is -7%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nev Saunders: 84%, Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nev Saunders: 61%, Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 59%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Nev Saunders: 1,875, level confidence: 61%. Final level for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 1,054, level confidence: 59%. Notes
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