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Login: | Explaining level changesSimon Buttars v Mike Reeves (Tue 03 Apr 2018)Match won by Simon Buttars. Result: 9-1,9-0,10-9.Starting level for Simon Buttars: 921, level confidence: 78%. Set manually. Starting level for Mike Reeves: 233, level confidence: 66%. Simon Buttars to win as he is currently playing 295% better than Mike Reeves. Simon Buttars won all of the games and 74% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 71% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Simon Buttars played 71% better than Mike Reeves in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Simon Buttars was taking it easy by anything up to 34%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 327 and 921 without affecting his level. In this case, Simon Buttars played at level 492 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Simon Buttars would normally have been playing at level 608 (based on typical behaviour), Mike Reeves played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 24%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 11% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Simon Buttars changes to 0% and Mike Reeves changes to +11%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Simon Buttars becomes 0% and for Mike Reeves becomes +7%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Weston Club Boxes' so the adjustment for Simon Buttars is 0% and for Mike Reeves is +3.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Simon Buttars: 88%, Mike Reeves: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Simon Buttars: 58%, Mike Reeves: 53%. A final adjustment of +3.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Simon Buttars: 987, level confidence: 58%. Final level for Mike Reeves: 241, level confidence: 53%. Notes
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