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Login: | Explaining level changesNye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams v Daniel Delahunty (Wed 11 Apr 2018)Match won by Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams. Result: 9-1,3-9,10-9,9-7.Starting level for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 1,150, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Starting level for Daniel Delahunty: 905, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Daniel Delahunty. Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams won 75% of the games and 54% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams played 20% better than Daniel Delahunty in this match. As Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams has played below his allowed range at 1,090, his level reduction is 0.6% before damping. On the assumption that Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams would normally have been playing at level 1,128 (based on typical behaviour), Daniel Delahunty played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.1%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.5% and 1.8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams changes to -0.5% and Daniel Delahunty changes to +1.8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams becomes -0.5% and for Daniel Delahunty becomes +1.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Green Boxes' so the adjustment for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams is 0% and for Daniel Delahunty is +0.9%. As Daniel Delahunty has a provisional level, this match has been used to calibrate his level so Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams's level has been left unchanged. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 88%, Daniel Delahunty: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 85%, Daniel Delahunty: 84%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 1,148, level confidence: 85%. Final level for Daniel Delahunty: 912, level confidence: 84%. Notes
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