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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Redland Anacondas v Thornbury A (Wed 18 Apr 2018)Match played between Dale Diment (home) and Callum Davidson (away).Match won by Dale Diment. Result: 4-11,11-5,11-7,11-4. Starting level for Dale Diment: 6,889, level confidence: 58%. Starting level for Callum Davidson: 9,349, level confidence: 59%. Callum Davidson to win as he is currently playing 36% better than Dale Diment. Dale Diment won 75% of the games and 58% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 37% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dale Diment played 29% better than Callum Davidson in this match. An upset! Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dale Diment actually played at a level of 9,114 and Callum Davidson at a level of 7,067. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 27% and 27% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dale Diment changes to +27% and Callum Davidson changes to -27%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dale Diment becomes +7.6% and for Callum Davidson becomes -7%. Given Dale Diment's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 7.4% has been applied to his level change. Given Callum Davidson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 15% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Play-Off 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Dale Diment is +5.3% and for Callum Davidson is -4.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dale Diment: 76%, Callum Davidson: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dale Diment: 58%, Callum Davidson: 58%. A final adjustment of -3.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Dale Diment: 7,143, level confidence: 58%. Final level for Callum Davidson: 8,430, level confidence: 58%. Notes
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