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Login: | Explaining level changesJonathan Platt v Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams (Mon 30 Apr 2018)Match won by Jonathan Platt. Result: 9-3,4-9,5-9,9-3,9-7.Starting level for Jonathan Platt: 1,479, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Starting level for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 1,108, level confidence: 85%. Set manually. Jonathan Platt to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams. Jonathan Platt won 60% of the games and 54% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jonathan Platt played 10% better than Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams in this match. As Jonathan Platt has played below his allowed range at 1,296, his level reduction is 6.6% before damping. On the assumption that Jonathan Platt would normally have been playing at level 1,440 (based on typical behaviour), Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.8%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.7% and 7.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jonathan Platt changes to -5.7% and Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams changes to +6.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jonathan Platt becomes -3.7% and for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams becomes +4.6%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Green Boxes' so the adjustment for Jonathan Platt is -1.8% and for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams is +2.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jonathan Platt: 86%, Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jonathan Platt: 78%, Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 83%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jonathan Platt: 1,450, level confidence: 78%. Final level for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 1,132, level confidence: 83%. Notes
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