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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier: Workout Harbourside Summer 1 v Westbury David Lloyd A (Wed 04 Jul 2018)Match played between Sam Barham (home) and Kirk Woodward (away).Match won by Sam Barham. Result: 11-5,11-0,11-2. Starting level for Sam Barham: 4,619, level confidence: 66%. Starting level for Kirk Woodward: 2,374, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Sam Barham to win as he is currently playing 95% better than Kirk Woodward. Sam Barham won all of the games and 83% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 371% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Sam Barham played 371% better than Kirk Woodward in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Sam Barham actually played at a level of 7,190 and Kirk Woodward at a level of 1,525. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 56% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 37% and 37% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sam Barham changes to +37% and Kirk Woodward changes to -33%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sam Barham becomes +11% and for Kirk Woodward becomes -12%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2018' so the adjustment for Sam Barham is +7.1% and for Kirk Woodward is -7.6%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Kirk Woodward is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sam Barham: 81%, Kirk Woodward: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sam Barham: 52%, Kirk Woodward: 55%. A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Sam Barham: 4,965, level confidence: 52%. Final level for Kirk Woodward: 2,258, level confidence: 55%. Notes
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