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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier: Workout Harbourside Summer 1 v Thornbury A (Summer) (Wed 06 Jun 2018)Match played between Jack Alcock (home) and Craig Webb (away).Match won by Jack Alcock. Result: 11-4,11-9,11-7:11-6,12-10,11-8:11-0,11-1,11-6:11-4,11-8,11-6. Starting level for Jack Alcock: 7,573, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Starting level for Craig Webb: 5,008, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Jack Alcock to win as he is currently playing 51% better than Craig Webb. Jack Alcock won all of the games and 62% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jack Alcock played 65% better than Craig Webb in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jack Alcock actually played at a level of 7,911 and Craig Webb at a level of 4,794. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.5% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.6% and 3.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jack Alcock changes to +3.6% and Craig Webb changes to -3.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jack Alcock becomes +1.7% and for Craig Webb becomes -2%. Given Jack Alcock's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 19% has been applied to his level change. Given Craig Webb's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2018' so the adjustment for Jack Alcock is +1% and for Craig Webb is -1.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jack Alcock: 84%, Craig Webb: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jack Alcock: 81%, Craig Webb: 81%. A final adjustment of -0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jack Alcock: 7,543, level confidence: 81%. Final level for Craig Webb: 4,933, level confidence: 81%. Notes
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