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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Redland Summer B v David Lloyd (Wed 01 Aug 2018)Match played between Rob Jeeves (home) and Matt Sharp (away).Match won by Rob Jeeves. Result: 15-4,15-8,15-3. Starting level for Rob Jeeves: 3,324, level confidence: 83%. Set manually. Starting level for Matt Sharp: 1,894, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Rob Jeeves to win as he is currently playing 76% better than Matt Sharp. Rob Jeeves won all of the games and 75% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Jeeves played 200% better than Matt Sharp in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rob Jeeves actually played at a level of 4,346 and Matt Sharp at a level of 1,449. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 31% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 22% and 22% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Jeeves changes to +20% and Matt Sharp changes to -22%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Jeeves becomes +7.2% and for Matt Sharp becomes -9.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2018' so the adjustment for Rob Jeeves is +4.7% and for Matt Sharp is -6%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Matt Sharp is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Jeeves: 91%, Matt Sharp: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Jeeves: 70%, Matt Sharp: 66%. A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Rob Jeeves: 3,490, level confidence: 70%. Final level for Matt Sharp: 1,812, level confidence: 66%. Notes
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