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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: David Lloyd A v David Lloyd (Wed 13 Jun 2018)Match played between Jason Mathias (home) and Matt Sharp (away).Match won by Jason Mathias. Result: 15-7,15-12,15-11. Starting level for Jason Mathias: 3,318, level confidence: 68%. Starting level for Matt Sharp: 1,778, level confidence: 80%. Set manually. Jason Mathias to win as he is currently playing 87% better than Matt Sharp. Jason Mathias won all of the games and 60% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jason Mathias played 52% better than Matt Sharp in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Jason Mathias was taking it easy by anything up to 10%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,578 and 3,318 without affecting his level. In this case, Jason Mathias played at level 2,835 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Jason Mathias would normally have been playing at level 2,980 (based on typical behaviour), Matt Sharp played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.1%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jason Mathias changes to 0% and Matt Sharp changes to +3.2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jason Mathias becomes 0% and for Matt Sharp becomes +2.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2018' so the adjustment for Jason Mathias is 0% and for Matt Sharp is +1.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jason Mathias: 83%, Matt Sharp: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jason Mathias: 74%, Matt Sharp: 81%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jason Mathias: 3,311, level confidence: 74%. Final level for Matt Sharp: 1,808, level confidence: 81%. Notes
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