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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 6: Weston Slappers v Kingsdown Stallions (Tue 24 Jul 2018)Match played between David Glimstead (home) and Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey (away).Match won by Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey. Result: 6-15,15-11,8-15,9-15. Starting level for David Glimstead: 879, level confidence: 79%. Set manually. Starting level for Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey: 1,284, level confidence: 82%. Set manually. Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey to win as he is currently playing 46% better than David Glimstead. Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey won 75% of the games and 60% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 47% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey played 32% better than David Glimstead in this match. In this case, Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey played at level 1,196 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey would normally have been playing at level 1,229 (based on typical behaviour), David Glimstead played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.8%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey changes to 0% and David Glimstead changes to +2.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey becomes 0% and for David Glimstead becomes +2.3%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2018' so the adjustment for Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey is 0% and for David Glimstead is +1.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey: 90%, David Glimstead: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey: 86%, David Glimstead: 85%. A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for David Glimstead: 892, level confidence: 85%. Final level for Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey: 1,277, level confidence: 86%. Notes
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