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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 6: Weston Slappers v BAWA (Wed 25 Jul 2018)Match played between David Glimstead (home) and Will Sanzo (away).Match won by David Glimstead. Result: 13-15,15-11,15-11,11-15,15-9. Starting level for David Glimstead: 892, level confidence: 85%. Set manually. Starting level for Will Sanzo: 1,307, level confidence: 43%. Will Sanzo to win as he is currently playing 47% better than David Glimstead. David Glimstead won 60% of the games and 53% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Glimstead played 11% better than Will Sanzo in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Glimstead actually played at a level of 1,136 and Will Sanzo at a level of 1,026. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 22% and 22% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Glimstead changes to +11% and Will Sanzo changes to -22%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Glimstead becomes +7.1% and for Will Sanzo becomes -10.9%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2018' so the adjustment for David Glimstead is +4.6% and for Will Sanzo is -6.8%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Will Sanzo is limited to -5.8% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Glimstead: 92%, Will Sanzo: 66%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Glimstead: 72%, Will Sanzo: 51%. A final adjustment of -1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for David Glimstead: 941, level confidence: 72%. Final level for Will Sanzo: 1,201, level confidence: 51%. Notes
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