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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 8: Avon West / Bristol Wanderers - K2 v Lansdown Summer D (Wed 06 Jun 2018)Match played between Tom Sadler (home) and Quita Colston (away).Match won by Tom Sadler. Result: 15-11,15-10,15-11. Starting level for Tom Sadler: 555, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Starting level for Quita Colston: 518, level confidence: 67%. Tom Sadler to win as he is currently playing 7% better than Quita Colston. Tom Sadler won all of the games and 58% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Sadler played 45% better than Quita Colston in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Sadler actually played at a level of 646 and Quita Colston at a level of 445. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Sadler changes to +14% and Quita Colston changes to -16%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Sadler becomes +8.3% and for Quita Colston becomes -9.3%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2018' so the adjustment for Tom Sadler is +5.4% and for Quita Colston is -5.9%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Quita Colston is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Sadler: 87%, Quita Colston: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Sadler: 75%, Quita Colston: 70%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Tom Sadler: 583, level confidence: 75%. Final level for Quita Colston: 493, level confidence: 70%. Notes
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