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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: David Lloyd A v Redland Anacondas (Wed 07 Nov 2018)Match played between Jason Mathias (home) and Dale Diment (away).Match won by Dale Diment. Result: 11-8,4-11,3-11,0-11. Starting level for Jason Mathias: 3,405, level confidence: 82%. Set manually. Starting level for Dale Diment: 7,052, level confidence: 55%. Dale Diment to win as he is currently playing 107% better than Jason Mathias. Dale Diment won 75% of the games and 69% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 128% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dale Diment played 59% better than Jason Mathias in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Dale Diment was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 5,113 and 7,052 without affecting his level. In this case, Dale Diment played at level 5,751 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Dale Diment would normally have been playing at level 6,113 (based on typical behaviour), Jason Mathias played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.3%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dale Diment changes to 0% and Jason Mathias changes to +2.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dale Diment becomes 0% and for Jason Mathias becomes +1.9%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Dale Diment is 0% and for Jason Mathias is +1.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dale Diment: 74%, Jason Mathias: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dale Diment: 65%, Jason Mathias: 79%. A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jason Mathias: 3,425, level confidence: 79%. Final level for Dale Diment: 7,185, level confidence: 65%. Notes
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