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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Westbury David Lloyd A v Thornbury A (Wed 07 Nov 2018)Match played between Max Millar (home) and Callum Davidson (away).Match won by Callum Davidson. Result: 7-11,6-11,5-11. Starting level for Max Millar: 7,275, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Starting level for Callum Davidson: 9,092, level confidence: 66%. Callum Davidson to win as he is currently playing 25% better than Max Millar. Callum Davidson won all of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Callum Davidson played 83% better than Max Millar in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Callum Davidson actually played at a level of 11,012 and Max Millar at a level of 6,007. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 19% and 19% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Callum Davidson changes to +19% and Max Millar changes to -16%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Callum Davidson becomes +5.3% and for Max Millar becomes -5%. Given Callum Davidson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 15% has been applied to his level change. Given Max Millar's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 8.8% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Callum Davidson is +3.4% and for Max Millar is -3.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Callum Davidson: 81%, Max Millar: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Callum Davidson: 67%, Max Millar: 71%. A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Max Millar: 7,109, level confidence: 71%. Final level for Callum Davidson: 9,371, level confidence: 67%. Notes
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