|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Redland Anacondas v Thornbury A (Wed 03 Oct 2018)Match played between Dale Diment (home) and Craig Webb (away).Match won by Dale Diment. Result: 11-13,10-12,11-4,11-6,11-9. Starting level for Dale Diment: 7,429, level confidence: 51%. Starting level for Craig Webb: 5,048, level confidence: 85%. Set manually. Dale Diment to win as he is currently playing 47% better than Craig Webb. Dale Diment won 60% of the games and 55% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dale Diment played 13% better than Craig Webb in this match. As Dale Diment has played below his allowed range at 6,190, his level reduction is 8.3% before damping. On the assumption that Dale Diment would normally have been playing at level 7,099 (based on typical behaviour), Craig Webb played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 11%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.8% and 9.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dale Diment changes to -6.8% and Craig Webb changes to +5.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dale Diment becomes -2.6% and for Craig Webb becomes +2.5%. Given Dale Diment's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.3% has been applied to his level change. Given Craig Webb's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Dale Diment is -1.8% and for Craig Webb is +1.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dale Diment: 71%, Craig Webb: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dale Diment: 63%, Craig Webb: 81%. A final adjustment of -1.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Dale Diment: 7,052, level confidence: 63%. Final level for Craig Webb: 5,141, level confidence: 81%. Notes
|