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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Thornbury A v David Lloyd A (Wed 10 Oct 2018)Match played between Jeremy Harris (home) and Rusty Pearce (away).Match won by Jeremy Harris. Result: 11-4,13-11,11-5:11-8,11-6,11-2:11-6,11-5,11-2:11-8,11-8,11-2:11-8,11-3,11-7. Starting level for Jeremy Harris: 9,871, level confidence: 43%. Starting level for Rusty Pearce: 5,699, level confidence: 49%. Jeremy Harris to win as he is currently playing 73% better than Rusty Pearce. Jeremy Harris won all of the games and 64% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 75% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jeremy Harris played 75% better than Rusty Pearce in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jeremy Harris actually played at a level of 9,922 and Rusty Pearce at a level of 5,670. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.5% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.4% and 0.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jeremy Harris changes to +0.4% and Rusty Pearce changes to -0.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jeremy Harris becomes +0.2% and for Rusty Pearce becomes 0%. Given Jeremy Harris's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 17% has been applied to his level change. Given Rusty Pearce's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.9% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Jeremy Harris is 0% and for Rusty Pearce is 0%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jeremy Harris: 66%, Rusty Pearce: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jeremy Harris: 65%, Rusty Pearce: 69%. A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jeremy Harris: 9,886, level confidence: 65%. Final level for Rusty Pearce: 5,692, level confidence: 69%. Notes
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