|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Westbury David Lloyd A v David Lloyd A (Wed 17 Oct 2018)Match played between Jared London (home) and Rusty Pearce (away).Match won by Jared London. Result: 11-6,11-3,11-2:11-5,11-8,11-4:7-10:7-11,6-11,11-9,8-11:8-11,9-11,11-6,6-11. Starting level for Jared London: 7,396, level confidence: 37%. Starting level for Rusty Pearce: 5,692, level confidence: 67%. Jared London to win as he is currently playing 30% better than Rusty Pearce. Jared London won all of the games and 75% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jared London played 200% better than Rusty Pearce in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jared London actually played at a level of 11,238 and Rusty Pearce at a level of 3,746. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 52% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 44% and 44% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jared London changes to +44% and Rusty Pearce changes to -21%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jared London becomes +11.2% and for Rusty Pearce becomes -6.4%. Given Jared London's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.2% has been applied to his level change. Given Rusty Pearce's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.9% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Jared London is +7.7% and for Rusty Pearce is -4.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jared London: 61%, Rusty Pearce: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jared London: 40%, Rusty Pearce: 54%. A final adjustment of +3.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jared London: 7,965, level confidence: 40%. Final level for Rusty Pearce: 5,812, level confidence: 54%. Notes
|