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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: David Lloyd A v Westbury David Lloyd A (Wed 28 Nov 2018)Match played between Emma Chorley (home) and Max Millar (away).Match won by Max Millar. Result: 0-11,6-11,5-11. Starting level for Emma Chorley: 4,484, level confidence: 82%. Set manually. Starting level for Max Millar: 7,354, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Max Millar to win as he is currently playing 64% better than Emma Chorley. Max Millar won all of the games and 75% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Max Millar played 200% better than Emma Chorley in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Max Millar actually played at a level of 9,946 and Emma Chorley at a level of 3,315. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 35% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 27% and 27% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Max Millar changes to +27% and Emma Chorley changes to -23%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Max Millar becomes +7.4% and for Emma Chorley becomes -7.5%. Given Max Millar's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.1% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Max Millar is +5.1% and for Emma Chorley is -5.5%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Emma Chorley is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Max Millar: 86%, Emma Chorley: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Max Millar: 63%, Emma Chorley: 67%. A final adjustment of -2.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Emma Chorley: 4,126, level confidence: 67%. Final level for Max Millar: 7,667, level confidence: 63%. Notes
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