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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Thornbury A v Workout Harbourside 1 (Wed 05 Dec 2018)Match played between Sam Davidson (home) and Richard King (away).Match won by Sam Davidson. Result: 11-5,11-3,11-6. Starting level for Sam Davidson: 9,491, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Starting level for Richard King: 6,547, level confidence: 65%. Sam Davidson to win as he is currently playing 45% better than Richard King. Sam Davidson won all of the games and 70% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Sam Davidson played 136% better than Richard King in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Sam Davidson actually played at a level of 12,102 and Richard King at a level of 5,134. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 22% and 22% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sam Davidson changes to +20% and Richard King changes to -22%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sam Davidson becomes +5.5% and for Richard King becomes -6.6%. Given Sam Davidson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change. Given Richard King's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 6.2% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Sam Davidson is +3.6% and for Richard King is -4.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sam Davidson: 85%, Richard King: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sam Davidson: 67%, Richard King: 63%. A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Sam Davidson: 9,860, level confidence: 67%. Final level for Richard King: 6,255, level confidence: 63%. Notes
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