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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: Workout Harbourside v University of Bath 1 (Wed 12 Dec 2018)Match played between Duncan Higgins (home) and Cameron Haddow (away).Match won by Cameron Haddow. Result: 4-11,4-11,9-11. Starting level for Duncan Higgins: 4,081, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Starting level for Cameron Haddow: 7,213, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Cameron Haddow to win as he is currently playing 77% better than Duncan Higgins. Cameron Haddow won all of the games and 66% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cameron Haddow played 94% better than Duncan Higgins in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Cameron Haddow actually played at a level of 7,559 and Duncan Higgins at a level of 3,894. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.8% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.6% and 3.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cameron Haddow changes to +3.6% and Duncan Higgins changes to -3.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cameron Haddow becomes +1.8% and for Duncan Higgins becomes -2.1%. Given Cameron Haddow's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 8.6% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Cameron Haddow is +1.2% and for Duncan Higgins is -1.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cameron Haddow: 85%, Duncan Higgins: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cameron Haddow: 81%, Duncan Higgins: 81%. A final adjustment of +3.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Duncan Higgins: 4,035, level confidence: 81%. Final level for Cameron Haddow: 7,746, level confidence: 81%. Notes
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