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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: University of Bath 1 v Workout Harbourside (Wed 31 Oct 2018)Match played between Charlie Griggs (home) and Paul Frost (away).Match won by Charlie Griggs. Result: 11-3,11-5,11-8:11-2,11-4,11-7:11-3,9-11,13-11,11-6:11-8,11-7,11-3:11-9,10-12,11-7,11-8. Starting level for Charlie Griggs: 7,133, level confidence: 47%. Starting level for Paul Frost: 4,386, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Charlie Griggs to win as he is currently playing 63% better than Paul Frost. Charlie Griggs won all of the games and 67% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Charlie Griggs played 106% better than Paul Frost in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Charlie Griggs actually played at a level of 8,033 and Paul Frost at a level of 3,895. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.8% and 9.8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Charlie Griggs changes to +9.8% and Paul Frost changes to -5.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Charlie Griggs becomes +3.4% and for Paul Frost becomes -2.7%. Given Charlie Griggs's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 8.3% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Charlie Griggs is +2.3% and for Paul Frost is -2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Charlie Griggs: 69%, Paul Frost: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Charlie Griggs: 61%, Paul Frost: 77%. A final adjustment of -1.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Charlie Griggs: 7,246, level confidence: 61%. Final level for Paul Frost: 4,192, level confidence: 77%. Notes
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