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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: Lansdown 1 v University of Bath 1 (Wed 21 Nov 2018)Match played between Luke Bishop (home) and Cameron Haddow (away).Match won by Luke Bishop. Result: 11-6,11-0,11-8:7-11,11-7,7-11,12-10,9-11:11-4,11-6,11-8:13-11,12-14,11-9,6-11,12-14:10-12,5-11,14-12,4-11. Starting level for Luke Bishop: 12,571, level confidence: 62%. Starting level for Cameron Haddow: 7,382, level confidence: 85%. Set manually. Luke Bishop to win as he is currently playing 70% better than Cameron Haddow. Luke Bishop won all of the games and 70% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Luke Bishop played 136% better than Cameron Haddow in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Luke Bishop actually played at a level of 14,790 and Cameron Haddow at a level of 6,274. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 13% and 13% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Luke Bishop changes to +13% and Cameron Haddow changes to -9.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Luke Bishop becomes +3.7% and for Cameron Haddow becomes -3.3%. Given Luke Bishop's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 24% has been applied to his level change. Given Cameron Haddow's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.2% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Luke Bishop is +2.3% and for Cameron Haddow is -2.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Luke Bishop: 79%, Cameron Haddow: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Luke Bishop: 67%, Cameron Haddow: 78%. A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Luke Bishop: 13,131, level confidence: 67%. Final level for Cameron Haddow: 7,213, level confidence: 78%. Notes
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