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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: Lansdown 1 v Workout Harbourside (Wed 17 Oct 2018)Match played between Luke Bishop (home) and Paul Frost (away).Match won by Luke Bishop. Result: 11-8,11-3,11-5:11-7,9-11,11-6,11-1:11-5,11-5,11-6:11-6,11-3,5-11,11-4:9-11,9-11,7-6. Starting level for Luke Bishop: 13,153, level confidence: 53%. Starting level for Paul Frost: 4,302, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Luke Bishop to win as he is currently playing 206% better than Paul Frost. Luke Bishop won all of the games and 67% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Luke Bishop played 106% better than Paul Frost in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Luke Bishop was taking it easy by anything up to 25%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 6,877 and 13,153 without affecting his level. In this case, Luke Bishop played at level 9,353 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Luke Bishop would normally have been playing at level 9,860 (based on typical behaviour), Paul Frost played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.4%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Luke Bishop changes to 0% and Paul Frost changes to +2.2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Luke Bishop becomes 0% and for Paul Frost becomes +1.3%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2018/2019' so the adjustment for Luke Bishop is 0% and for Paul Frost is +1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Luke Bishop: 73%, Paul Frost: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Luke Bishop: 60%, Paul Frost: 71%. A final adjustment of -7.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Luke Bishop: 11,831, level confidence: 60%. Final level for Paul Frost: 4,199, level confidence: 71%. Notes
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